CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-29T04:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28848/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M6.8 class flare from AR 13559, best observed in SDO AIA 131. This eruption is also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with subsequent field line movement, an EUV wave, and post eruptive arcades following the flare visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Possible arrival/glancing blow signature of arrival of this CME at L1: enhancement in magnetic field components with an increase in B_total from 3.6 nT to over 7 nT, reaching a maximum near 8 nT. Rotation of all three magnetic field components. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 390 km/s to 440 km/s and increases in temperature and density (to ~5nT) were also observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-01T05:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-31T00:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note:
predicted CME shock arrival time : 2024-01-31T00:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive : 50%
Kp Range : 3-5
Lead Time: 51.12 hour(s)
Difference: 29.30 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2024-01-30T02:11Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement